Watching the Real Estate Bust in Real-Time

So the real estate market is still continuing the downward slump that began with Hurricane Katrina:

U.S. existing home prices dropped a record 3.5 percent last month, compared with the same month a year earlier, while the total number of residences sold fell 11.5 percent compared with October 2005, according to an industry report released yesterday….

By region, home sales rose 6.4 percent in the West; were flat in the Midwest; fell 2.9 percent in the Northeast; and declined 1.2 percent in the South, according to the trade group’s report.

But that’s not real useful information. That’s just depressing to know. This is news you can use: The Trulia real estate site provides “heat maps” for various cities gauging market hotness (and median prices) on a neighborhood by neighborhood basis, and, as on this page, on a week by week basis. So if you want to know whether prices-per-square-foot went up or down where you live in the past week, and what the trends have been over even longer periods, it’s the exact place to go to maximize your “there goes my nest egg” anxiety. Have fun!

Women and Minorities are not the Problem

They’re the ’08 leaders. Not to pile on, since Thomas Edsall‘s weekend column has been so ably dissected by Ezra and Ben already, but I do think Edsall’s piece also needs to be considered in light of the fact that the two leading Democratic contenders for the presidential nomination in 2008, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are a woman and an African-American. It seems increasingly bizarre to me that anyone could point to a sensitivity to the concerns of women and African-Americans as the problem with the party, when, in fact, the party is now being led by a diverse group of people whose candidacies have been made possible by the work of such interest groups over the past four and a half decades. Indeed, the real worry ought to be that the party has neglected to adequately study how to help its ever-growing number of female and minority candidates win in a political environment that House candidate Darcy Burner has pointed out may be uniquely unfavorable to them (wartime), and which may require them to pursue different sorts of electoral strategies than the ones that proved so successful for their white male Democratic peers this November.

That said, I’ve generally found Edsall to be a fantastically astute political analyst whose insights into the differences between Democratic and Republican organizing efforts ought to be heeded, since he does talk extensively with both sides. And in this instance, I don’t think it’s totally fair to act as if he is expressing only his own views, rather than those he has heard from a broad array of people within the Democratic Party, or that he is somehow uniquely out of touch. The fact of the matter is that a substantial number of leading Democratic and liberal thinkers have made similar critiques of the Democratic Party’s interest groups over the past few years, even in the pages of this magazine. For example, Michael Tomasky wrote last May in his acclaimed “common good” article:

the way interest-group politics are done in today’s Democratic Party just has to change. I’m not the first to observe this recently — indeed, momentum is gathering behind this view, although it’s still a long way from being a consensus one. In their controversial 2004 paper, “The Death of Environmentalism,” Ted Nordhaus and Michael Shellenberger blasted the environmental movement’s tactical narrowness and outdated intellectual frameworks. In their perceptive and passionate new book Crashing the Gate, Markos Moulitsas Zuniga and Jerome Armstrong rebuke liberal interest groups for a variety of sins, notably of feeling the need to endorse a few moderate Republicans for Congress even though those Republicans, while they might have acceptable records on issue X, Y, or Z, will go on to make Bill Frist the majority leader and Dennis Hastert the speaker — and with that single vote, more than cancel out whatever nice things they do when nothing’s on the line.

This kind of politics is shallow, it’s shortsighted, it’s anti-progressive, and it nullifies the idea that there might even be a common good. Interest groups need to start thinking in common-good terms. Much of the work done by these groups, and many of their goals, are laudable. But if they can’t justify that work and those goals in more universalist terms rather than particularist ones, then they just shouldn’t be taken seriously.

And you know what? He and the people he cited were making some reasonable points. The exciting thing, though, is that the netroots and new progressive groups like MoveOn have already helped transform some of the older interest groups, which were formed during a time of bipartisan comity, unused to the new highly polarized political environment, and oddly disconnected from even the Democratic base. In 2004, we had “The Death of Environmentalism,” but in 2006 we had An Inconvenient Truth and a series of online and off-line advocacy campaigns around global warming that have truly transformed the center of opinion on this country on this issue. Since 2004, the reproductive rights movement has undergone a real transformation around the goal of reducing unwanted pregnancies and abortions by promoting contraception, and we can all be glad that women’s groups are still strong enough to oppose the appointment of this yahoo to federal office. In 2005, Hurricane Katrina shocked America into re-examining the plight of poor African-Americans, and it was that shock that finally broke the bond between the American people and the president — a break from which he has never recovered. Indeed, the fact that the Democrats won the Senate at all can be laid at the feet of interest group politics of the most old-fashioned kind, in that George Allen lost his seat after making a highly-publicized and offensive racial remark, which spurred investigation of his past history of using racist terms. The thing is that we’re now so far past the start of the start of the new social movements that we didn’t even think of the story around Allen as one of “interest group liberals,” “identity politics,” “pc run amok,” or “liberal speech codes” — just to list a few of the frames that would have greeted his actions decades ago — but rather saw it simply as a senator violating America’s social norms and undermining its values.

So, no, interest groups and their progressive agendas don’t need to be kicked to the curb. They need to keep doing what they have started doing, which is gaining new strength as defenders of America’s twenty-first century norms against the right-wing radicals who’d like to drag us back half a century.

Cross-posted from Tapped.

News, but no surprise

“Women priests given ‘dregs’ in Church of England”:

Women priests are given the worst positions in the Church of England even though they make up half of all newly ordained ministers, research published on Sunday said.

The church ordained its first women priests in 1994 but new entrants have predominately been given unpaid roles while their male colleagues are largely found in paid or “stipendiary” positions, the research found.

“Women are left with the dregs,” said David Voas, senior researcher at Manchester University, who conducted the study.

Some Carving Advice

Apparently some people have trouble carving turkeys. Between having had experience as line and prep cook in my teens (where I dealt with large numbers of roasted fowl), and my repressed surgical impulses (loved, loved, LOVED dissecting), I’ve become designated carver for all family occasions. Some words of advice:

1) Never try to cut through bone. A well-done bird should be flexible at any rate, and you want to find the notch between bones and slice through the cartilage and connective tissue, which is much softer.

2) Start with the breast, do one half, then move back to the drumsticks, and then to the thighs. Once part of the breast is removed you’ll have more room to angle in on the more complicated bits of the bird. Or else you can denude the bird of all limbs, and then move on to the breast, which is the standard method.

3) Wings are the hardest part to cut off and frequently will require a bit of twisting. You want the one-joint V, not the two-joint W for perfect presentation. The third, hard-to-dislodge part of the W belongs to a different cut of the bird (“the shoulder”).

Other people’s carving instructions here, here, and here.

It’s really pretty straight-forward.

I hope there’s dahl. Merry, merry.

Perceived permanence is the provocation

From WorldPublicOpinion.org’s recent survey:

All Shias polled in Baghdad (100%) believe that the U.S. military presence is “provoking more conflict than it is preventing.” Outside of Baghdad, this view is slightly less common: 74 percent of Shias in the rest of the country say the presence of U.S. troops provokes conflict while 25 percent say the troops are a stabilizing force….

Most Shias in Baghdad (83%) think that the United States plans to keep troops in Iraq permanently, which suggests that they see insurgents as battling a long-term occupation and may explain why they approve of attacks on U.S.-led forces even though they do not support an immediate withdrawal. This view is somewhat less common among Shias outside of Baghdad (69%).

Where the Anarchy Came From

Also, from The New York Times, April 12, 2003, Editorial:

Military officials have reason to be reluctant about performing police duties. Their troops are trained to fight a war, not to arrest bank robbers or stop muggings. They are unfamiliar with Iraqi culture and do not speak Arabic. There are bound to be threatening and unpleasant incidents, and the Arab world is likely to see American street patrols as the first step in a new American dictatorship.

But there is no alternative for the American military other than to restore order. It must police the streets, and above all make Iraq safe enough for humanitarian aid workers to bring in food, water and medical supplies, and it must work to restore electrical and water utilities. The military, which has performed so brilliantly during the war, is going to have to take up this second, and perhaps harder, challenge. This is not only its obligation under international conventions, but also a necessary step in the dismantling of Mr. Hussein’s reign of terror.

The most worrisome part of the current crisis is that it seemed to take the American troops somewhat by surprise. Washington apparently presumed that it would be possible to remove Mr. Hussein and his associates while leaving civic structures intact. So far, that has not happened, and the bureaucratic and law enforcement services in Iraqi cities have melted away. From the beginning, the chief concern about the Iraqi invasion has not been the Pentagon’s ability to prevail on the battlefield, but the Bush administration’s ability to plan for the day after victory. So far, nothing has happened to alleviate that concern.

That was the day after the famous Rumsfeldian quote, “Freedom’s untidy.”